Skills are changing: Trends in Norwegian national tests

Abstract

Norwegian 5th and 8th graders answer common tests in reading, mathematics and English every year. According to official statistics the average skills were virtually un­changed during the years 2014 to 2021. This stability is surprising in light of patterns in international surveys, consequences of the pandemic, change in reading practices, and increased exposure to English.

In this article, we re-analyze detailed data at item-student level. The tests for con­secutive cohorts can be compared on the same scale using a subgroup of (randomly drawn) students each year who are given some tasks used in previous years (“anchor items”). We get a simple measure of skills development by seeing whether the anchor students do better or worse on the anchor items over time. We also analyze the develop­ment over time using IRT models and these confirm clear changes over time. The skills of Norwegian 5th and 8th graders have changed significantly, with markedly increased skills in English at both grade levels. For reading and mathematics, the changes over time are smaller, but our evidence indicates a negative trend for both reading and mathematics after 2016.

The analyses also reveal the reason why the official figures are wrong. The software the Directorate of Education has used (XCalibre) assumes that the skills each year reflect a standardized skill distribution. It is obviously impossible to detect changes in skills across cohorts if one assumes that the cohorts, in expectation, are exactly the same.

Our findings show that national tests provide a richer insight into pupils’ skill development over time than previously thought: National tests shed light on important patterns for the design of – and the priorities in – Norwegian schools.